The trading deadline is less than two weeks away. According to FanGraphs, the Astros have an 85.7 percent chance of winning the AL West, and their chances of winning the World Series are top in the AL and only second overall to the Dodgers. The club is sure to be a buyer by the deadline. How high the top brass will aim is yet to be determined.
The uncertainty arises from the state of the organization’s farm system. While it’s not without talent, it is no longer what it used to be due to former General Manager Jeff Luhnow’s tendency to go big game hunting this time of year. These acquisitions have earned a World Series title and four consecutive ALCS appearances.
They also left the farm in good shape.
That season, The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked the Astros Farm 25th in baseball ($). Unsurprisingly, current general manager James Click has made few insignificant trades since taking office 17 months ago. What made the situation worse is the punishment of the sign theft scandal, where MLB selected the Astros in each of the final two drafts in the first and second rounds.
With the franchise still vying for one more ring, it has been extremely difficult to replenish its supply of young talent without top draft picks. This means that the 2021 trading deadline is a real tightrope walk for Click and owner Jim Crane.
It is reasonable to believe that this year will be the best chance for Astros to win another World Series for the foreseeable future. Carlos Correa is a free agent after the season and it will be an uphill battle for Crane to get him back. Although it is from Crane that Correa is an impending free agent, the situation could force the billionaire and his GM to spend significant potential capital even though he cannot spend much.
Additionally, Click has reiterated that the luxury tax cap will not be an obstacle, expanding the number of possible trading destinations.
The Astros’ greatest area of need is the bullpen, and while relievers typically don’t have significant commercial value, premium late-inning arms like Cubs closer Craig Kimbrel will likely require a top prospect or two. Various reports and rumors on Twitter have linked the Astros to the eight-time all-star, who has a $ 16 million club option in 2022.
Another big name in the trading market, Marlin’s outfielder Starling Marte, could also land in Houston. The Astros reportedly inquired about the former all-star’s availability. Interestingly enough, at the age of 32, Marte is in the middle of a career year with the record. After the season he is a free agent.
Yesterday the Twittersphere was full of intrigue when a rumor linked the Astros to Nationals ace Max Scherzer. The veteran Righty is in the final year of his contract, but he would certainly have a lot of value in a deal that could decimate a rebounding farming system.
This leads to the question that could go unanswered until July 30: How far are the Astros willing to go in the hunt for yet another championship?