Eric Hosmer “has appeared in recent trade talks,” said Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The motivation for such discussions seems to be at least partly related to the luxury tax situation of the Padres, as Rosenthal notes: “The latest calculation that MLB has presented around the All-Star break, the Padres are about 2 USD above the CBT threshold “. Million. “In a similar context, the Padres let the Pirates do much of the bill for their recent takeover of Adam Frazier.
After the Padres hit 71-91 in the 2017 season, the Padres Hosmer signed a huge eight-year contract worth $ 144 million, signaling that they were ready to compete. Since then, the Padres have only gotten more aggressive, placing Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. in even bigger deals, along with a number of high-profile trades for brands like Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove.
It was thus possible to force the brothers into the competition. They made it to the NLDS in 2020 and currently hold a wildcard spot in 2021. However, Hosmer’s contribution to the club has been by leaps and bounds. In 2018 and 2019, his wRC + numbers were 95 and 91, respectively, which resulted in negative fWAR numbers. The shortened 2020 season appeared to be a rebound with a wRC + of 127 and an fWAR of 0.9. But in 2021 it decreased again, with its wRC + at 96 and its fWAR back in negative territory. Hosmer’s contract runs for four years after 2021.
It’s unclear what the next collective agreement will look like, but the current one has a property tax limit of $ 210 million for 2021. As a potential first-time payer, the 20% tax on the excess seems very mildly deterrent. For example, a team that spends $ 225 million would incur a $ 3 million fine. Exceeding the tax threshold in 2021 should therefore not necessarily be a major problem, especially if the thresholds are raised significantly in the next KBA.
While Rosenthal adds that the team could potentially increase their CBT score “for the right acquisition,” they also seem to be considering the alternative route of ducking back under the line by the end of the season. Hosmer’s move with its $ 18 million AAV would bring the team under the line and potentially leave room for more additions. With the team apparently having to choose a side and commit to it, “it could explain why Preller continues to discuss a seemingly endless series of scenarios – including potential trades with Hosmer,” said Rosenthal.
There are no signs that a deal is imminent, nor are any trading partners mentioned. But the appeal of getting Hosmer wouldn’t have so much to do with Hosmer itself. “The Padres would probably have to attach a considerable prospectus value to the Trade Hosmer,” says Rosenthal. So, any team Hosmer takes on would need enough payroll space to pay him, but looking ahead to future production, the prospect would look good.
Speculatively, the Cubs could fit. They seem to have already started a sell-off, trading Joc Pederson for Atlanta earlier this month. First baseman and upcoming free agent Anthony Rizzo appears destined to be traded unless the team can work out an extension. Javier Baez and Kris Bryant will also be disappearing from the books at the end of the year or earlier to make room for payroll.
A return to the royals is another interesting option. They’ve been in Rebuild mode since Hosmer’s departure, but have tried to reappear as contenders with some aggressive moves over the last off-season. That did not go as planned as they are currently 42-55 and definitive sellers as the trading deadline approaches 4pm on Friday.
The acquisition of Hosmer and some prospects could be a way to improve for future seasons while also recapturing a fan favorite who was part of a World Series winner to open the next competition window. The Orioles and Tigers might also consider taking over the contract from Hosmer to bolster their potential inventory.