The deadline for teams to sign their 2021 draft class selection has now passed. The Orioles signed all 21 picks they made in the draft. They settled their affairs well before the deadline, with no will-or-not drama for each choice. There is no special price for it, so this fact will not comfort anyone very much when we look back on a disappointing design class from O five years later.
This design marks the second year in a row that the Orioles have adopted an underslot strategy to make their top picks. The 5th pick, outfielder Colton Cowser, agreed to a $ 4.9 million signing bonus. That was about $ 1.3 million below the slot value for the selection. That pool money was used later in the draft when the O’s started their eighth round against high school catcher Creed Willems and signed him over the slot for about $ 800,000. They also made about $ 500,000 through the slot in their third round pick, Kentucky outfielder John Rhodes.
When choosing Cowser, the Orioles skipped three of the “Big Four” high school shortstops that were still available. Those players were Jordan Lawlar, who eventually finished sixth by the Diamondbacks, Brady House, who was voted 11th by the Nationals, and Kahlil Watson, who was voted 16th by the Marlins.
With the understanding that the review is always 20/20, of course, there are several ways to monitor the progress of the draft course. One route that is not taken is to stay away from the House / Lawlar / Watson level. Even within the underslot path, the O’s were heading in a different direction than anyone could have imagined if they knew the O’s were skimming an additional $ 1.3 million in slot machine money from the top pick.
Over time, I’ll keep an eye on these teams to see how their draft picks have performed compared to the O’s.
Pittsburgh Pirates
One thing that struck me immediately after the draft was over was that the Pirates had the kind of draft you might have hoped the Orioles would have if you knew they were pursuing an under-slot strategy. The Pirates went about $ 2 million under the slot when they got catcher Henry Davis in first place overall, and then took three direct picks from high schoolers that went way too far: $ 800,000 for pitcher Anthony Solometo, $ 450,000 for Outfielder Lonnie White, $ 2.2 million for pitcher Bubba Chandler.
Pre-draft prospect rankings are obviously not the definitive way of determining a player’s final performance, but it’s pretty noticeable that the Pirates were able to get three players into the top 21 of the MLB pipelines this way. In contrast, the O’s only got two players in the top 100, despite finishing in the top 100 four times. Her overslot high schooler Willems wasn’t on the radar of mainstream writers on the promising industrial complex.
Pittsburgh had significant luxury over the Orioles as they were the worst team in 2020, so they voted first. Once they decided to get Davis, the Orioles couldn’t have him; Additionally, they had the luxury of putting him at number 1 under the slot, although that would have been a slot value pick for the Orioles at number 5. They had their second choice from Solometo before the O’s could make a second choice.
One price the pirates paid for topping up all of these guys is that they only ended up having one player with a signature bonus in the $ 200-500,000 range. They went under the slot 5 to 10 each round, including three low bonus senior signs that basically boiled down to punted picks. The Orioles ended up with five players in the $ 200-500k bonus range, and no player in their top ten rounds received a bonus under $ 100k.
Unlike the Pirates, the O’s were able to pick a college performer, second baseman Connor Norby, with their second round pick by not immediately turning around and immediately using the overslot money on high school outfielder Joshua Baez who went to the Cardinals in 54th place for $ 2.25 million.
Arizona Diamondbacks
This team voted right after the Orioles and took the opportunity to select Lawlar, who received a bonus of roughly $ 1 million over the slot value of the # 6 pick. Whether Lawlar would have been satisfied with exactly the same bonus is not foreseeable, but we assume this for this exercise. That would have been roughly $ 500,000 above the 5th slot.
The Orioles could have picked Jordan Lawlar and had almost the same design as after the first round. The only choice they should have made differently would be to have Lawlar instead of Cowser and a college player closer to the eighth round instead of Willems.
If Cowser is a good player, Orioles fans won’t get too upset about who they could have taken instead. Part of the fear of the underslot strategy is perhaps the fate of Heston Kjerstad, number 2 in the 2020 overall standings. The fact that he was unable to play due to myocarditis was not one of the foreseeable risks of the strategy last year. But when Cowser doesn’t work, it can be understandable to get angry about who wasn’t selected.
Washington Nationals
That House fell in 11th place to the Nationals was a bit of a surprise after talking about so much about the Big Four getting into the top 7 or so. The O’s southern neighbors signed House for $ 5 million, which is about $ 500,000 above her place at number 11. I think House would have asked for a bigger bonus from the Orioles in 5th place. Once his choice was between the $ 5 million or the College of the Nationals, taking the $ 5 million was certainly easy. This is the top 9 selection money. Not many high school students can be confident they will accomplish as much in three years as college juniors.
Much like the Diamondbacks and Lawlar, the Orioles draft could have gone much like they actually would have if they had chosen House instead of Cowser first. Let’s say the Orioles could have signed House for $ 5.5 million – about $ 700,000 under Slot. That still gets them all players in their draft class except Cowser and Willems.
A team can overrun its draft pool by up to 5% and the only penalty it pays is a tax on the overrun. The O’s pool was $ 11,829,300, giving them nearly $ 600,000 in available space. They spent almost every dollar in the pool but didn’t use the excess to make signings. According to Pipeline’s Jim Callis, 20 teams exceeded their bonus pool by less than 5% this year.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins landed in 16th place with Watson for a reported bonus of approximately $ 4.5 million, which was about $ 750,000 above the slot for Miami’s selection. This was basically every extra dollar the marlins could scrape together without getting into the area where they’ll have to lose a future draft pick to get a signature. This penalty hits more than 5% of the draft pool; no team has met this penalty since the system was introduced in 2012.
To the idea of the Orioles picking Watson, it means that, similar to House, this is likely not a pick they could have made at that price of # 5. What I saw is that he wanted at least $ 5 million. That’s very close to what the O Cowser gave, so again there’s the ghost of the possibility of having the same draft class, except with Watson instead of Cowser and maybe a college player in the middle of the round instead of Willems .
In pre-draft comments, Orioles GM Mike Elias said that the Orioles “should get an impact player” with the # 5 pick and that “we feel we have failed with the pick” if it doesn’t. I take Elias at his word, and I think the O’s seriously believe Cowser is that impact player, so now we have to find out if his judgment is correct.
Jud Fabian
Boston Red Sox outfielder Jud Fabian from the University of Florida ranked 40th in the draft. He was one of three players from the top ten rounds of the draft who didn’t sign before yesterday’s deadline.
Veteran baseball writer Peter Gammons tweeted last week that Fabian had been offered $ 3 million for a second round pick from multiple teams, including the Orioles, one pick later at number 41. The slot value was at number 40 about $ 1.8 million. It seems that this was not enough to get Fabian to sign. A $ 3 million bonus claim is cash number 22. Fabian was rated 23rd on Pipeline’s Best Drafts List and 24th on Fangraphs, so check this out. This was not general applause. Keith Law of the Athletic had him ranked 59th.
This is just a rumor from a man, so take it with caution. Of note, if it is true, this would be the second year in a row that the O’s underslot and get beaten to pick their Plan A player for the extra cash. One persistent rumor after the 2020 draft was that the O’s wanted to use the underslot money on high school pitcher Nick Bitsko at # 30, except that it was taken by the Rays at # 24 instead. It’s a risk of strategy. The guy you like the most may not get on to the next choice you make.
The Orioles didn’t pull a bunch of bums
Whether the O’s were hoping for Bitsko with their second pick last year or not, the guy the O’s ended up taking was shortstop Jordan Westburg at # 30. Westburg hasn’t given much heartburn cause in this election as he beats 0.299 / .407 / .497 in 51 games with High-A Aberdeen. Four-rounder Coby Mayo, a high school student who got some of that overslot money, got some nice results early in his pro career. Mayo has three home runs in his first 17 Florida Complex League games, with almost as many walks (11) as strikeouts (12).
Elias and Co. are not infallible in their judgments about players, but so far they have given plenty of reason to believe that if you give them the chance, they can pick some good professionals from the amateur ranks. The 2019 draft did not include any sub-slot stuff. What it showed is better judgment for second round picks Gunnar Henderson and Kyle Stowers.
This carries over to the view of the 2021 class. The Orioles have passed three of the Big Four. They passed on to Kumar Rocker, who ended up not signing with the Mets at all. They didn’t inject money on high school gamers who a devoted follower of pre-draft coverage would have known. You still have some interesting guys.
Second-round pick Norby had his fans among several rankings. While Pipeline only placed him 58th, both Fangraphs and Law had him 25. It’s good to get late first round talent early in the second! Reed Trimble also scores points in the competitive balance round B and lands in 44th place on the Fangraphs pre-draft list. The O has it at # 65. FG also liked Cowser the best of all the rankings. He’s now # 85 in their top 100 before seeing a professional pitch. And maybe something will turn out about Willems after all.