President Biden is planning the first major federal tax hike since 1993 to fund the long-term economic program designed as a follow-up to his Pandemic Control Act, according to people familiar with the matter.
Contrary to the $ 1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus bill, the next initiative, which is likely to be even bigger, won’t rely solely on sovereign debt as a source of funding. While it has become increasingly clear that tax increases will be a component – Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that at least part of the next bill will have to be paid and has pointed to higher tax rates – key advisors are preparing a package of measures that could increase the Corporate tax rate and the individual tax rate for high earners.
Since every tax break and loan has its own lobby constituency to support it, tinkering with tax rates comes with political risks. This explains why the 1993 revision of President Clinton’s tax increases contrasts with the modest changes that have been made since then.
For the Biden administration, the proposed changes will not only provide an opportunity to fund key initiatives such as infrastructure, climate and expanded aid to poorer Americans, but also to address the inequalities claimed by the Democrats in the tax system itself. The plan will test Biden’s ability to advertise Republicans and Democrats’ ability to stay unified.
“His whole point of view has always been that Americans believe that tax policies must be fair, and he’s looked at all of his policy options through that lens,” said Sarah Bianchi, director of US policy at Evercore ISI and former Biden economic assistant. “That is why the focus is on eliminating the inequalities between work and wealth.”
Although the White House has opposed a direct wealth tax as suggested by Massachusetts progressive Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, current government thinking targets the rich.
The White House is expected to propose a series of tax increases, largely in line with Biden’s 2020 campaign proposals, according to four people familiar with the discussions.
Tax hikes included in a broader infrastructure and jobs package likely include the repeal of portions of President Trump’s 2017 tax law that benefited businesses and high net worth individuals, as well as other changes to make tax law more progressive, so those with the plan.
The following suggestions are currently planned or are being considered, according to those who asked not to be named as the discussions are private:
- Increase in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%
- Reduction of tax preferences for so-called pass-through companies such as limited liability companies or partnerships
- Increase in income tax rate for those earning more than $ 400,000
- Extending the scope of inheritance tax
- A higher capital gains tax rate for individuals who earn $ 1 million or more annually. (Biden on the campaign suggested applying higher income tax rates)
An independent analysis of the tax plan for the Biden campaign conducted by the Tax Policy Center estimated it would raise $ 2.1 trillion over a decade, though the administration’s plan is likely to be smaller. Bianchi wrote earlier this month that Congress Democrats could approve $ 500 billion.
The entire program has yet to be presented. Analysts are reckoning with $ 2 to 4 trillion. A date has not yet been set for an announcement, although the White House said the plan will follow the signing of the COVID-19 relief bill.
An open question for Democrats is what parts of the package need to be funded amid the debate over whether the infrastructure will eventually pay for itself – especially given the ongoing low cost of borrowing, which remains historically low. Efforts to make the expanded child tax credit on the Pandemic Aid bill permanent – something with a price tag valued at more than $ 1 trillion over a decade – could be harder to sell if classified as fully debt-financed become.
Democrats would need at least 10 Republicans to support the bill and bring it under the regular Senate rules. But GOP members are signaling that they are ready to fight.
“We’re going to have a big, robust discussion about the appropriateness of a big tax hike,” Senate Minority Chairman Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) Said last month, predicting the Democrats would pursue a draft reconciliation based on the GOP waived and aims for a corporation tax even higher than 28%.
Kevin Brady, the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, said “There seems to be a real drive to tax investments in capital gains at marginal income rates,” calling it a “terrible economic mistake.”
Although about 18% of the George W. Bush administration’s tax cuts were allowed to expire under a 2013 agreement and some tax increases have been recorded in other legislation, 1993 is the last major series of increases, according to experts. This bill was passed by two votes in the House of Representatives, calling on the Vice President to break a tie in the Senate.
“I don’t think it’s an understatement to say that the current partisan environment is more severe than it was in 1993,” said Ken Kies, executive director of the Federal Policy Group, former chief of staff of the Joint Tax Committee of Congress. “So you can draw your own conclusions” about the prospect of a deal this year, he said.
Still, there could be some tax initiatives Republicans could leave behind. One of them is moving from a gasoline tax to a vehicle mileage charge to fund highway projects.
Another reason is spending more money on enforcing the Internal Revenue Service – a way to increase revenue without increasing interest rates. The agency is estimated to bring in an additional $ 3 to $ 5 for every additional $ 1 spent on IRS audits.
Democrats are also trying to revise tax laws that they say are not doing enough to discourage US companies from moving jobs and profits offshore in order to increase revenue, an aide said. Republicans could potentially support incentives, although it is unclear whether they would support penalties.
White House officials, including National Economic Council Assistant Director David Kamin, who wrote a 2019 paper on “Taxing the Rich,” are in the process of finalizing Biden’s tax plans.
If the timing is passed, tax measures are expected to take effect in 2022 – although some lawmakers and Biden supporters outside the administration have advocated holding back while unemployment remains high due to the pandemic.
The legislature has its own ideas for tax reforms. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden wants to consolidate energy tax breaks and require investors to regularly pay taxes on their investments, including stocks and bonds with unrealized gains.
“A nurse pays taxes on every single paycheck. A billionaire in an affluent suburb, on the other hand, can postpone paying taxes month after month so that paying taxes is practically voluntary, “Wyden (D-Ore.) Said in an interview with Bloomberg. “I don’t think that’s right.”
Warren has levied a wealth tax, while House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles) said she would like to consider a financial transactions tax.
Democratic strategists see the next package as the last chance to reshape the US economy on a grand scale before lawmakers turn to the 2022 interim campaign.
“Usually the party in power gets a shot or two to pass major legislative packages,” said Chuck Marr, senior director of federal tax policy at the left-wing Center for Budget and Political Priorities. “This is the next shot.”