Zach Collins is unlikely to be fully healthy in the next four to six months. Considering he’s just gone under the knife again for a third operation on his pesky left ankle, there’s little guarantee that Collins will be able to play in 2021-22, let alone make a significant impact on the pitch.
The Trail Blazers, of course, understand the details of Collins’s unfortunate circumstances better than anyone but the man himself. Collins didn’t speak at all during last season’s rehab, playing only 11 games between shoulder and ankle injuries in 2019-20.
That summer was supposed to be when Collins got his first big NBA payday. Instead, Portland won’t even make him a qualifying offer of $ 7 million, according to The Athletic’s Jason Quick, making Collins the rare former lottery pick to end his rookie deal as an unreserved free agent.
Don’t assume, however, that the clammy Blazers’ cap pragmatism bitter Collins on a possible return to Rip City.
“I love Portland,” Collins told The Athletic. “I’ve always said I love Portland and it would be great to come back and show what I can.”
It’s safe to say that Neil Olshey – who was so in love with Collins during the design process that he swapped two first-round picks to get the Gonzaga product in 11th place – would also be happy to bring the 23-year-old back.
But the continuation of the marriage between Collins and the Blazers is not as easy as either side would like it to be. Collins, whose career was at an early crossroads, may be forced to accept the most lucrative contract offer he has been offered and Portland is facing inevitable luxury tax problems.
“Neil and I talk all the time, and we’ll do what we always do – sit and talk and see if something makes sense,” said Mark Bartelstein, Collins agent. “But they are in a tough spot on the luxury tax, and there is a sense of urgency to win now … so there is a lot of balance to be found. But I know Neil is a big believer in Zach.
While both Bartelstein and Olshey have inflated views of Collins’ ceiling, they are certainly not the only ones in the league aware of their height, despite this recent injury frequency.
Mobile seven-foot players who are proven rim protectors and even hint at legitimate three-point shooting skills are among the most valuable types of players in the modern NBA. Chances are that teams with enough space in the cap won’t be as deterred by Collins’ injury as other players with his relatively nondescript game history.
In an overwhelming field of free agents, why shouldn’t a young team like the Memphis Grizzlies or Oklahoma City Thunder take on Collins on a two-year, $ 7 million deal that includes a team option?
The possibility of Collins receiving such an offer could depend on his ability to fold in the next season. He certainly seems confident that this third surgery on his left ankle will be his last, although Collins will begin rehab in 2021-22.
Once the Blazers re-sign Norman Powell, a must-have for their short- and long-term hopes of running, they will likely be within millions of dollars of the $ 136.6 million luxury tax threshold. Using the $ 5.9 million middle taxpayer exemption for an outside free agent will get them past that, leaving Portland to grapple with soaring tax bills as it fills its five remaining roster slots.
The Blazers have full bird rights to Collins, although they have chosen not to make the qualifying offer to him. Given that he wants to stay in Portland, the only factor that would stop him from signing again is the team’s reluctance to pay a larger luxury tax bill when asking for more than a minimum contract.
The difference between Collins’ minimum and a realistic competing bid is unlikely to be more than a few million dollars a year. While that amount seems negligible, it may not be for Jody Allen’s wallet, considering how luxury tax payments are worded.
Portland would pay one and a half times its luxury tax if its total salary for the next season is within $ 5 million below the $ 136.6 million threshold. To get into another $ 5 million tier above tax, it must be paid out 1.75 times a team’s taxable money; To dwarf $ 10 million above that means a payment equal to 2.5 times that amount.
Re-signing Powell, putting the taxpayer at the middle level, and finding multiple bit players with minimum contracts to meet roster requirements will almost certainly catapult the Blazers into the first category of tax payments. There’s even a chance Powell’s number will force them on to the next.
Anyway, will everyone think it’s worth raising more pocket money from their billionaire for a player Portland can’t count on to help the team win in one of the most important seasons of all time? The answer is as obvious as it is daunting.
Tax complications could be contentious when it comes to Collins. Perhaps the minimum will be enough to bring him back. But if not, it seems almost guaranteed that Collins played his last game against the Blazers in the Orlando Bubble last August.
[Jason Quick, The Athletic]